Pure Plays
Liverpool 2-0-1 : WLW
The red half of Merseyside is rising and Rafa's men continue to plunder in the goals at will. They built on last week's 2-0 away win at Sunderland with a solid 4-0 win against Toulouse in the midweek UCL. Look out for more goals from Liverpool as they begin to hit their stride in the domestic league.
ATS Take : Liverpool to win by at least 2 clear goals at home to Derby
Chelsea 1-1-2 : L-WL
A potential banana skin as Chelsea travel to Villa Park. Last week's 1-0 home win against Portsmouth was not convincing and it will be a difficult away tie against a resurgent Villa side who came from behind to beat Fulham 2-1 last week. Look out for more maurading runs from winger, Ashley Young, down the right side against his namesake Ashley Cole.
ATS Take : Take Villa +3/4 at home to Chelsea
Arsenal 1-0-2 : LLW
Arsenal will not want to take this match lightly after surviving a late winning goal against Man City last week. The corresponding fixture last season saw Portsmouth both take leads against Arsenal, but failed to take all 3 points. This time, with a free-scoring Cesc in top form, it will be hard to stop the Gunners.
ATS Take : Take Arsenal -1 at home to Pompey
MU 1-0-3 : LLLW
MU were happy to register their first win of the season last weekend at home to Spurs, and while they might roll out the red carpet to welcome back old boy, Keano, I doubt Sunderland will be able to prevent a comfortable win for the Red Devils.
ATS Take : Take MU -1 3/4 at home to Sunderland
Friday, August 31, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
ATS Form Guide as at 29 Aug
YTD ATS Analysis
Both Arsenal and Manchester United broke their losing ATS streaks, though neither of them did it convincingly. Especially for MU, who had to thank their woodwork and two goal line clearances from Rio Ferdinand before they secured 3 points against Spurs. Arsenal on the other hand should have scored more against ManCity, if not for Schmeichel Jr's heroics, which Arsene Wenger had this to say, "When I saw my Dutch striker step up to face Schmeichel from the penalty spot, my memories went back to Dennis Bergkamp and an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester United back in 1999,' said the Arsenal boss with a chuckle. 'Then Schmeichel saves again. I just hope I don't have to meet his grandson in 20 years time."
It goes to show how much impact the legendary Dane had during his time as MU keeper in the 1990's.
YTD ATS Record & Form Guide as at 26 August (Most recent result shown on right)
Liverpool 2-0-1 : WLW
Chelsea 1-1-2 : L-WL
Arsenal 1-0-2 : LLW
MU 1-0-3 : LLLW
Both Arsenal and Manchester United broke their losing ATS streaks, though neither of them did it convincingly. Especially for MU, who had to thank their woodwork and two goal line clearances from Rio Ferdinand before they secured 3 points against Spurs. Arsenal on the other hand should have scored more against ManCity, if not for Schmeichel Jr's heroics, which Arsene Wenger had this to say, "When I saw my Dutch striker step up to face Schmeichel from the penalty spot, my memories went back to Dennis Bergkamp and an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester United back in 1999,' said the Arsenal boss with a chuckle. 'Then Schmeichel saves again. I just hope I don't have to meet his grandson in 20 years time."
It goes to show how much impact the legendary Dane had during his time as MU keeper in the 1990's.
YTD ATS Record & Form Guide as at 26 August (Most recent result shown on right)
Liverpool 2-0-1 : WLW
Chelsea 1-1-2 : L-WL
Arsenal 1-0-2 : LLW
MU 1-0-3 : LLLW
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Post-Analysis for w/e 26th Aug
Post Analysis of Pure Plays from last weekend
Its no coincidence that out of the Big Four teams, only Liverpool managed to win by more than a single goal margin. Rafa's new motto to his team this season must be "Go out and get me some goals". Having said that, their defence is still rock solid as they kept their first clean sheet of the season.
Liverpool 2-0-1
ATS Take : Take Liverpool to cover the -3/4 handicap
Final Result : Liverpool won 2-0
Post Analysis : The heroics of Sunderland keeper, Gordon kept the scoreline respectable only. More to come from Liverpool's attacking quadruple this season. Torres, Voronin, Kuyt, Crouch. Watch out Derby, they will be in the next line of fire as Liverpool move up another gear.
Chelsea 1-1-2
ATS Take : DNB
Final Result : Chelsea won 1-0
Post Analysis : Jose may be telling his team that a win is a win still. Lampard's long range effort saved the blues for Chelsea as they grinded out a difficult home win, but failed to overcome the handicap. Difficult to identify Chelsea's ATS form right now.
Arsenal 1-0-2
ATS Take : Take Arsenal to cover the -3/4 handicap
Final Result : Arsenal won 1-0
Post Analysis : Had it not been for Schemeichel's Jr. brilliant penalty save from Rvp, this might have been an easy home win for Arsenal. They dominated the match, but once again failed to convert their chances. Cesc's cross-angled shot settled the issue in the 80th min, not before a familiar sighting of Kasper in the opponent's penalty box late on for a corner in the dying minutes. Arsenal should take positives from this match and build on their ATS form.
Manchester United 1-0-3
ATS Take : Take Spurs on the +3/4 handicap as MU continue their worst start to the season
Final Result : MU won 1-0
Post Analysis : Fans who watched this match would say Spurs were unlucky not to leave OT without a result. Robbie Keane's first minute lobbed effort came off the crossbar, and MU had to survive 2 goal line clearances before Nani finally settled the game for them. I'm sure MU fans would breathe sigh of relief as their team finally broke their winless duck, and also registered their first ATS cover for the season.
Its no coincidence that out of the Big Four teams, only Liverpool managed to win by more than a single goal margin. Rafa's new motto to his team this season must be "Go out and get me some goals". Having said that, their defence is still rock solid as they kept their first clean sheet of the season.
Liverpool 2-0-1
ATS Take : Take Liverpool to cover the -3/4 handicap
Final Result : Liverpool won 2-0
Post Analysis : The heroics of Sunderland keeper, Gordon kept the scoreline respectable only. More to come from Liverpool's attacking quadruple this season. Torres, Voronin, Kuyt, Crouch. Watch out Derby, they will be in the next line of fire as Liverpool move up another gear.
Chelsea 1-1-2
ATS Take : DNB
Final Result : Chelsea won 1-0
Post Analysis : Jose may be telling his team that a win is a win still. Lampard's long range effort saved the blues for Chelsea as they grinded out a difficult home win, but failed to overcome the handicap. Difficult to identify Chelsea's ATS form right now.
Arsenal 1-0-2
ATS Take : Take Arsenal to cover the -3/4 handicap
Final Result : Arsenal won 1-0
Post Analysis : Had it not been for Schemeichel's Jr. brilliant penalty save from Rvp, this might have been an easy home win for Arsenal. They dominated the match, but once again failed to convert their chances. Cesc's cross-angled shot settled the issue in the 80th min, not before a familiar sighting of Kasper in the opponent's penalty box late on for a corner in the dying minutes. Arsenal should take positives from this match and build on their ATS form.
Manchester United 1-0-3
ATS Take : Take Spurs on the +3/4 handicap as MU continue their worst start to the season
Final Result : MU won 1-0
Post Analysis : Fans who watched this match would say Spurs were unlucky not to leave OT without a result. Robbie Keane's first minute lobbed effort came off the crossbar, and MU had to survive 2 goal line clearances before Nani finally settled the game for them. I'm sure MU fans would breathe sigh of relief as their team finally broke their winless duck, and also registered their first ATS cover for the season.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
ATS for weekend 25-26 Aug
YTD ATS Analysis
Both Arsenal and Manchester United are both on losing ATS streaks.
Arsenal : 0-0-2
MU : 0-0-3
Of the 2 teams, Arsenal seem more likely to break their ATS duck with a home game against Manchester City this weekend. However, with the spread at Ars -3/4, it will take a brave man to take out his cash to wager against top-of-the-table Man City, who are currently in a rich vein of form with new owner and new manager at the helm.
Pure Plays
Liverpool 1-0-1
From an ATS pov, it would be safe to take Liverpool -3/4 away at Sunderland as a trend reversal seems to be taking place with Rafa's new boys. Their last season's Away ATS record was 6-0-13, which they have identified as their weak link, and I am very sure they will go all out for a win to cover the spread.
ATS Take : Take Liverpool to cover the -3/4 handicap
Chelsea 1-1-1
No clear signs developing for Chelsea yet. Their Home ATS record does not bode well with a -1 1/4 handicap this weekend at home to in-form Portsmouth, who beat Bolton 3-1 last week. Bettors will be sticking their neck out for Chelsea to beat the spread this week.
ATS Take : DNB
Arsenal 0-0-2
Arsenal face early league leaders Man City at the Emirates. Many bettors will be jumping behind the new leaders after their impressive 1-0 win over arch-rivals Man Utd last week. A change of guard is taking place in this youthful Arsenal squad, and I will stick it out by saying that the young Gunners will overcome the spread and register their first ATS win at home.
ATS Take : Take Arsenal to cover the -3/4 handicap
Manchester United 0-0-3
Nothing much is going for Ferguson's men at the moment. To add salt to wound, they lost to their arch-rivals last weekend, which will dampen team spirit ahead of the Old Trafford clash with born-again Spurs, which hammered newly promoted side Derby 4-0.
ATS Take : Take Spurs on the +3/4 handicap as MU continue their worst start to the season
Both Arsenal and Manchester United are both on losing ATS streaks.
Arsenal : 0-0-2
MU : 0-0-3
Of the 2 teams, Arsenal seem more likely to break their ATS duck with a home game against Manchester City this weekend. However, with the spread at Ars -3/4, it will take a brave man to take out his cash to wager against top-of-the-table Man City, who are currently in a rich vein of form with new owner and new manager at the helm.
Pure Plays
Liverpool 1-0-1
From an ATS pov, it would be safe to take Liverpool -3/4 away at Sunderland as a trend reversal seems to be taking place with Rafa's new boys. Their last season's Away ATS record was 6-0-13, which they have identified as their weak link, and I am very sure they will go all out for a win to cover the spread.
ATS Take : Take Liverpool to cover the -3/4 handicap
Chelsea 1-1-1
No clear signs developing for Chelsea yet. Their Home ATS record does not bode well with a -1 1/4 handicap this weekend at home to in-form Portsmouth, who beat Bolton 3-1 last week. Bettors will be sticking their neck out for Chelsea to beat the spread this week.
ATS Take : DNB
Arsenal 0-0-2
Arsenal face early league leaders Man City at the Emirates. Many bettors will be jumping behind the new leaders after their impressive 1-0 win over arch-rivals Man Utd last week. A change of guard is taking place in this youthful Arsenal squad, and I will stick it out by saying that the young Gunners will overcome the spread and register their first ATS win at home.
ATS Take : Take Arsenal to cover the -3/4 handicap
Manchester United 0-0-3
Nothing much is going for Ferguson's men at the moment. To add salt to wound, they lost to their arch-rivals last weekend, which will dampen team spirit ahead of the Old Trafford clash with born-again Spurs, which hammered newly promoted side Derby 4-0.
ATS Take : Take Spurs on the +3/4 handicap as MU continue their worst start to the season
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
How Do I Read ATS ?
Today, ATS has a full season behind it after a fruitful 06/07 season tracking of the ATS performances of the Big Four.
In the previous season, you would realise that the eventual champions, Manchester United had the best ATS record 20-5-12, while completely dominating their Home ATS record with a 12-2-5 record.
How To Read the ATS ?
20-5-12 is defined as :
20 = 20 wins against-the-spread
5 = 5 ties against-the-spread
12 = 12 losses against-the-spread
Further in-depth understanding of the ATS
As you can see, I had also broken down the respective ATS trends into Home & Away to track the team's performance even closer. By having such intimate knowledge of their Home & Away ATS trends, it would give sportsbettors a greater inside knowledge when they made their judgement bets.
Summary
Applying the ATS system to your sportsbetting will require discipline and putting aside your emotions when placing your bets. Taking the 07/08 season which just kicked off 2 weeks ago, I have already started on my ATS tracking. You can follow me throughout this season as I will be posting my ATS predictions and match analysis on matchdays to give sportsbettors my rationale on my selections.
In the previous season, you would realise that the eventual champions, Manchester United had the best ATS record 20-5-12, while completely dominating their Home ATS record with a 12-2-5 record.
How To Read the ATS ?
20-5-12 is defined as :
20 = 20 wins against-the-spread
5 = 5 ties against-the-spread
12 = 12 losses against-the-spread
Further in-depth understanding of the ATS
As you can see, I had also broken down the respective ATS trends into Home & Away to track the team's performance even closer. By having such intimate knowledge of their Home & Away ATS trends, it would give sportsbettors a greater inside knowledge when they made their judgement bets.
Summary
Applying the ATS system to your sportsbetting will require discipline and putting aside your emotions when placing your bets. Taking the 07/08 season which just kicked off 2 weeks ago, I have already started on my ATS tracking. You can follow me throughout this season as I will be posting my ATS predictions and match analysis on matchdays to give sportsbettors my rationale on my selections.
ATS Record (since 2006)
Past Results : A detailed report on the 06/07 EPL season is attached for the Big Four teams (Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United)
Why the need for ATS ?
ATS is a system which combines the use of statistics & trend predictions cross-checked against an in-depth understanding and knowledge of soccer. This system requires an intimate knowledge of the different variable elements which could determine an outcome of a game, such as team selections, form guide, injuries, suspensions and x-factors (i.e. derby matches, new manager, etc.)
The system was devised in the summer of '06 after having followed professional soccer over a decade, whilst trying to unlock the vagaries of sportsbetting.
ATS (Against-The-Spread)
Objective : To introduce a disciplined sportsbetting system to layman sportsbettors
Goal : To help sportsbettors make better decisions in their bets, thereby leading to greater profits in the long term
Strategy : To use the ATS system to track a team's performance against-the-spreads as specified by the bookmakers
The system was devised in the summer of '06 after having followed professional soccer over a decade, whilst trying to unlock the vagaries of sportsbetting.
ATS (Against-The-Spread)
Objective : To introduce a disciplined sportsbetting system to layman sportsbettors
Goal : To help sportsbettors make better decisions in their bets, thereby leading to greater profits in the long term
Strategy : To use the ATS system to track a team's performance against-the-spreads as specified by the bookmakers
What is ATS ?
Against-the-spread (ATS) is a commonly used sports betting terminology in North American sports.
Spread betting was invented by Charles K.McNeil, a math teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s. The concept was exported to the United Kingdom in the 1980s. In North America, the bettor usually bets that the difference in the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than a value specified by the bookmaker.
For example, if a bettor places a bet on an underdog in an American football game when the spread is 3.5 points, he is said to take the points; he will win his bet if the underdog's score plus 3.5 points is greater than the favourite's score. If he had taken the favourite, he would have been giving the points and would win if the favourite's score minus 3.5 points was greater than the underdog's score. Spreads may be specified in half-point fractions to avoid ties, or pushes.
In short, ATS basically tracks how a team performs against-the-spread they have been specified by a bookmaker. To give sportsbettors an example, let's refer to the English Premier League, which is the most watched domestic soccer league in the world, with a global fan base spanning continents. Its huge following today is in no part due to the proliferation of pay-tv into many households today. With such a huge fan base, it is also very common to see fans putting wagers to make watching the live soccer action more exciting and exhilirating.
It is with this that I have devised an ATS system which I hope will help the layman sportsbettors to make better judgements in their weekly "investments" at the local bookmaker.
Spread betting was invented by Charles K.McNeil, a math teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s. The concept was exported to the United Kingdom in the 1980s. In North America, the bettor usually bets that the difference in the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than a value specified by the bookmaker.
For example, if a bettor places a bet on an underdog in an American football game when the spread is 3.5 points, he is said to take the points; he will win his bet if the underdog's score plus 3.5 points is greater than the favourite's score. If he had taken the favourite, he would have been giving the points and would win if the favourite's score minus 3.5 points was greater than the underdog's score. Spreads may be specified in half-point fractions to avoid ties, or pushes.
In short, ATS basically tracks how a team performs against-the-spread they have been specified by a bookmaker. To give sportsbettors an example, let's refer to the English Premier League, which is the most watched domestic soccer league in the world, with a global fan base spanning continents. Its huge following today is in no part due to the proliferation of pay-tv into many households today. With such a huge fan base, it is also very common to see fans putting wagers to make watching the live soccer action more exciting and exhilirating.
It is with this that I have devised an ATS system which I hope will help the layman sportsbettors to make better judgements in their weekly "investments" at the local bookmaker.
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